Southern California’s economy looks like it is on increasingly firm ground with all signs pointing to an improving job market in the first half of the year, according to a quarterly report by Cal State Fullerton.
The school’s Southern California Economic Indicator increased 0.78% in the fourth quarter of last year from the previous three months. It was the ninth successive quarterly improvement since the indicator bottomed in the third quarter of 2009. The indicator has proven to be an accurate predictor of economic and employment trends in the region.
“There doesn’t seem to be any sign of going back into recession or slowing down,” said Adrian Fleissig, the CSUF economist who oversees the indicator. “It certainly looks like we’re having an improvement in the employment conditions — not huge improvement but a gradual improvement.”
The indicator includes Los Angeles, Orange, San Bernardino, Riverside, Ventura and Imperial counties.
Five of seven components in the indicator were positive in the fourth quarter: the increase in the money supply, change in the interest rate spread, increase in regional nonfarm employment, increase in the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index and a decrease in regional unemployment.
A fall in regional building permits and a decline in the Pacific region consumer confidence index were the two factors that negatively impacted the indicator.
Other economic reports show Orange County is doing better than the region as a whole, with the unemployment rate falling to 7.8% in December, near a two-year low and the lowest in the region. (Imperial County’s unemployment rate was 26.8% in December. Riverside was 12.5%.)
Orange County employers added at least 24,600 new workers last year — the most since 2006 —and hiring accelerated in the last three months of 2011.
State employment officials will release revised employment numbers for last year on March 9. Experts are expecting the report to show Orange County hiring was even stronger than first reported.
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